Global Conflict Risk Monitor

Map Layers

AboutOverview & mission TimelineEvents & history TheatersEscalation ladder MarketsFinancial intel NewsIntel & updates DomainsOperational areas PostureRisk gauge

Global Risk Posture

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annual P(WWIII) · 12-month outlook

systemic index —

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6h trend—

last movesteady

Historical-analog ladder · the live read against crises you knowengine-scored analogs — never hand-typed

◂ HubAbout · Overview & mission✕

WHAT THIS MEANS

A live estimate of how close the world is to a major war, read continuously from the news. If you'd like to learn how it works and what each figure means, click the button below.

HONEST FORECASTING

Deep uncertainty is surfaced, never hidden: the headline is published as a range with its own self-validation, honest-null states say "we don't know" out loud, and the index deliberately caps below certainty — 100 is reserved for record-verified catastrophe, never inference.

Full methodology & math ↗

◂ HubTimeline · Events & history✕

band & posture ▾

↔steady

CONF

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30-DAY WINDOWⓘ

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rolling estimate

90-DAY WINDOWⓘ

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rolling estimate

P(WWIII) — full historical timeline (persists across sessions)

Baseline: 1.5%

24h high: —

6h change: —

24h low: —

Position: —

At level: —

Locus: —

◂ HubTheaters · Geographic focus✕

Theaters · Escalation Ladderoperator focus · then hottest

The live geographic picture — every theater and signal layer — is the globe at the center of the hub. This window is the escalation ladder: every tracked flashpoint and the rung it sits on this snapshot, operator focus first, then hottest.

◂ HubDomains · Operational areas✕

Indications & Warning · Boardawaiting data

▸ Model internals — math · context · diagnostics

Baseline P₀ = 1.5%/yr (modern, flat) · systemic L = — · guardrail collapse = —
P(WWIII|E) = σ(logit P₀ + β·L) = — · 30d: — · 90d: —
Load-bearing modality = —
Load-bearing theater = —
Memory load = —
Escalation locus = —
Escalation breadth = —

◂ HubNews · Intel & updates✕

Filters

awaiting live data…

Articles

Video

Sources

Live log

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▣ Tip: click any domain card or bar to audit the articles feeding its score

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◂ HubMarkets · Financial intel✕

Markets—

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palette is risk-lens reversed — ▼ falling = green · ▲ rising = red

Reference desk · global markets

RAiTHE GMMthe first-party market monitor Bloomberg Marketsglobal market news & data Reuters Marketswire-speed market coverage FT Marketsglobal capital-markets analysis CNBC MarketsUS session & pre-market MarketWatchindices, movers, screeners Trading Economicsmacro calendar & indicators Investing.commajor indices, every region

Field-native market intelligence lives at raithe.ca/markets — the GMM monitor. The radar rows are GCRM's risk-lens read of the same instruments; the desk above is display-only reference, never a model input.

Strategic reserves · world emergency oil buffer

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US SPR level—Mbbl—

Consumption cover—days—

Share of peak—%—

Draw rate · 13 wk—Mb/d—

US SPR · full history—

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Days of cover—

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IEA collective release · largest ever—

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Holder	Emergency stock	As of	Basis
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colour encodes risk, not direction — reserves falling = red, rebuilding = green (prices read the other way round for the same reason)

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API Key

Set in settings.yml → dashboard.operator_key

Regime Factors

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Assert Event

Seismic Alerts

No alerts — monitoring

Operator Log

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